Prediction Time...

For those of you who read my last post theres no mistake in the fact that I'm back. Well atleast mentally. I said, I meant it but in no way was that a declaration of world domination. Physically I feel great. Aside from the little day to day feelings of fatigue that come along with training all systems check out. Mentally my head is screwed on straight. Which is something that I've never expierienced. I'm not sure what is going to happen at the Psycho Psummer 50km. I try not to think about it that much. Whatever is going to happen is going to happen. At this point in the game the winner has already been chosen. The winner is the one who has sacrificed the most. The great thing about racing is you don't get to see whos sacrificed the most until race day rolls around.
In my honest opinion have I sacrificed enough? No. I haven't sacrificed anymore than usual. In fact I'd say less even. Since Berryman I've spent more time with the family. Missed workouts so that my wife could pursue her rowing endeavors and even cut a few long runs short for one reason or another while I worked out whatever was wrong with my personal life. That being said it comes to this. Prediction time. Who I think is going to factor into the overall outcome of the race.
Judging from the list of entrants so far and a few people who I know will be there that haven't thrown their hat in the ring yet. These are my picks. About the only definate that I see the only solid prediction I can make without a doubt would be. Wynn Davis for the big WIN. Reason number one for this pick. I don't see anyone on the list or anyone that I know will be there that has his kind of speed in the 50km. I can see a healthy Caleb keeping up but other than that there is no one. In my wildest dreams I'm not even close to 3:25 50km speed. So I won't even entertain the idea of being close in the end. Reason number two for picking Wynn is this. Its been hotter than hell in Wisconsin lately. Hotter than its been here and the terrain hes trained on is very similar tho that of Psychos course. Hes perfectly trained for this type of race. Hands down the cream of the crop.
This is where predictions get fuzzy. For second overall it could be anybodys race. Theres three maybe four guys that could come through if they have a good day. Caleb, Kyle, myself and Brian Pawley from North Vegas. Brians name is not one that you all may be familiar with but I assure he is fast. Or he was anyway. The first time I raced against him was the very first time I had run an ultra. At Flatrock 2001 he finished second place to Sean Nunns' 4:47 clocking a 4:49. At the time and for four years after that remained the second fastest time at the Rock. It still remains as the 5th fastest time in the history of that race. There are several things that are going to be against him though I feel. One - the humidty. Two - the course. Three - his age even though most ultrarunners get better with age we'll have to wait and see.
Caleb - I feel is a major wildcard. Even an injured or less than 100% Caleb is a force to be reckoned with and not to be taken lightly. Hes got guts and in my expierience the guy whos willing to kill himself out there. The one who runs with an abandoned recklessness is a dangerous hungry individual. A guy who can gut check when the chips are down can create a power from within that will overtake frontrunners late in a race.
Kyle - The way Kyle has been running over the last 6 months is amazing. His ability to recover between races has been just as amazing. My personal feeling is that he is finally coming into his own and he knows just what he needs to do when he needs to do it. If six weeks was enough time to recover from Kettle then he will definately be a factor for the top three. "Slow and steady pace wins the race."
Which brings us to the final prediction. Myself. It wouldn't be a race in the midwest without a physically and mentally sound David Wakefield showing up. I hate saying it like that. It always comes of as arrogant. But I think if I run my race and stay out of trouble early on then I'm a huge factor for the top three. Now that I'm centered I'm not putting a huge amount of stress on myself. I know that I'm physically capable and historically July has been a big month for me. Winning the Midnight 50km last year on the hilly ArkansasTraveler 100 course in the 90 degree heat in 4:07. My weaknesses on Psychos course have been well documented. From going out too fast to not enough hill training. In the winter version I'm usually finished after the second loop left deciding if its worth a third. In short this time around. I've done the hill work. I've done the heat work. Have I done the endurance work? I'm kind of iffy in answering that one. On the run no. I haven't run more then 22 miles. On the cycle I've done a couple of 50 plus rides and a 100 miler since Berryman. I'll be curious as to how that will convert. On the 14th I'll find out. The key things for me factoring in a podium finish will be this. Starting off easy and building tempo after I get into a rythm. Monitor fluid intake constantly as well as my calorie consumption. Lastly erase all thoughts and notions of sitting down or quiting from my mind. If I'm gonna do it I've got to get out on that second loop as soon as I finish the first loop.
Well thats it. Thats all I got to say about that. Last night was my last hard workout. 12x600m hill repeats on trail in the heat. Up in 3:15 to 3:30 down in 2:30 to 2:45 with no rest in between. Tonite is an easy 20 miler on flat trail followed directly with an ice bath. Then everything after that will be easy until race day so as to allow the muscles to fully recover from the 5 weeks of hill training. I can't wait to see you all real soon. I'm already getting antsy. Ready to do this.